SportsLine’s advanced computer model simulated Saturday’s Nationals vs. Astros game 10,000 times.
- by CBS Sports Staff
The Houston Astros will look to even up their best-of-seven series with the Washington Nationals when they meet in Game 4 of the 2019 World Series on Saturday. The Astros (107-55) pulled out a 4-1 victory in Game 3, while the Nationals (93-69), who finished second in the NL East this year, had an eight-game winning streak snapped on Friday. First pitch from Nationals Park is set for 8:07 p.m. ET, and Houston is now 3-3 on the road during the 2019 MLB Playoffs. The latest Astros vs. Nationals odds show Washington favored at -118 on the money line (risk $118 to win $100), while the over-under for total runs scored is 8.5. Before making any Nationals vs. Astros picks of your own, you should see the latest 2019 World Series predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered the 2019 World Series up over $800 for $100 players on top-rated MLB picks this season. The model was especially strong on top-rated money line picks this season, entering the World Series on a profitable 158-130 run. Anyone who has been following it is way up.
Now, the model has dialed in on Astros vs. Nationals. We can tell you it’s leaning under 8.5 runs, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value.You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows the Nationals will send left-hander Patrick Corbin (14-7, 3.25 ERA) to the mound. He’s been used as both a starter and reliever this postseason. In his first playoff start in Game 1 of the NLDS, he yielded two runs over six innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In his other start in Game 4 of the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals, he allowed four runs over five innings, striking out 12.
Although left fielder Juan Soto had a three-game hitting streak snapped on Friday, he has been feasting on Astros pitching in the World Series 2019, going 4-for-11 with two doubles, one homer, three RBIs, three walks and one stolen base. He has a .500 on-base percentage, .818 slugging percentage and 1.318 OPS.
But just because Washington has been red hot in the postseason does not mean it is the best value on the Astros vs. Nationals money line.
That’s because the Astros have climbed back into the World Series 2019 and will send right-hander Jose Urquidy (2-1, 3.95 ERA) to the mound. He provided 2 2/3 innings of important relief for Houston in the decisive Game 6 of the ALCS against the New York Yankees, striking out five. He has not started a game since Sept. 27, when he went six scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Angels.
Left fielder Michael Brantley continues to pound Washington pitching, and is 5-for-12 with two RBIs in the series. He has a .500 on-base percentage, .417 slugging percentage and .917 OPS.
So who wins Game 4 of Nationals vs. Astros? And which side of the money line has all the value?